What impact will AI have on work?
Jeremy Peckham, Research Lead at the AI, Faith and Civil Society Commission
Will AI lead to job loss?
There’s no general agreement among economic analysts and commentators on the scale and timing of job loses. Many believe that this will be no different from other periods in history, such as the Industrial Revolution, where new jobs were created and prosperity improved.
Others such as Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, take the view that we’re entering a fourth Industrial Revolution. He believes that it will be quite different from other revolutions in industry, such as the introduction of steam power, electricity and electronics.
"We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before." [Klaus Schwab - Executive Chairman WEF]
The Industrial Revolution
In the Industrial Revolution the impact was mostly on skilled workers as mechanisation displaced people such as weavers in the textile industry. A group of artisans, calling themselves the Luddites, smashed machinery in protest at what they saw as a threat to their livelihoods.
Economists have traditionally rejected the notion that automation decreases employment, claiming a lack of evidence for this. The term ‘Luddite’ is now used as a derogatory term for those opposed to ‘progress’.
The machinery revolution in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries brought employment to unskilled workers, albeit mostly women and children, working long shifts, often in hazardous environments. More manual jobs were created in mining and construction, and new skills were required in areas such as accounting, management and equipment maintenance.
"The speed of current breakthroughs has no historical precedent. When compared with previous industrial revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace. Moreover, it is disrupting almost every industry in every country. And the breadth and depth of these changes herald the transformation of entire systems of production, management, and governance." [Klaus Schwab, Executive Chairman WEF]
How will the AI revolution affect jobs?
1. Replicating human skills
AI is now influencing human-acquired skills such as driving a vehicle or piloting a drone.
Medical robots, still operated by experts, are assisting in delicate operations. At what point might a machine be able to replace a highly skilled surgeon for such tasks?
2. Encroaching on cognition and creativity
Many cognitive or skilled tasks, previously carried out by humans, are now carried out by AI algorithms, from data analysis in accountancy to medical image interpretation.
Even areas that we would have thought of as creative, such as journalism, are influenced by software that can compile news reports from basic facts. Other creative areas also, such as music composition or art, aren’t untouched by developers’ aspirations to stretch the boundaries of what can be done.
"A majority of AI today is driven at an accelerated pace because it can be built before we decide if it should be." [John Havens 'Heartificial Intelligence', 2016]
What Does the Future Hold?
Some advocate for Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a means to provide financial security for those who lose their jobs, allowing them to pursue personal interests or hobbies. However, many argue that work is essential to human dignity—while automation can replace dangerous or repetitive jobs, most people derive a sense of purpose and fulfilment from their work, preferring it over a life of leisure. Others believe displaced workers could retrain for roles that require soft skills, such as caregiving or counselling. The challenge, however, is that many displaced individuals lack these skills, access to retraining programs, or opportunities in industries where these skills are in demand.
Human Values Risk Analysis:
Dignity of Work: High Risk
Job displacement could diminish human dignity by leaving many without purpose or opportunities to retrain for new roles.
Cognition and Creativity: High Risk
AI replacing creative and cognitive jobs could undermine human creativity and intellectual work, posing a significant risk to human expression.
Moral Autonomy: Medium Risk
The ethical implications of AI taking over roles that require moral judgment (like surgery) are underexplored, posing a moderate risk to human autonomy.
Authentic Relationships: Medium Risk
If AI takes on a role in caregiving and customer service it could affect human connections.
Truth & Reality: Low Risk
No direct risks to truth and reality.
Privacy & Freedom: Low Risk
No direct risks to privacy or freedom
Policy Recommendations:
1. Invest in Workforce Reskilling
Governments should fund retraining programs, focusing on soft skills and AI-related technical skills, to help displaced workers transition into new roles
2. Strengthen Social Safety Nets
Enhance unemployment benefits and job transition programs to support displaced workers, including career counselling and access to re-skilling opportunities.
3. Foster Collaboration Between Public and Private Sectors:
Governments should collaborate with businesses and educational institutions to create industry-specific solutions to AI-related job displacement. This includes aligning education curricula with future workforce needs, including AI literacy and adaptability.
5. Support Creation of Human-Centred Jobs:
Policies should incentivise the creation of human-centred jobs in sectors where AI cannot easily replace human capabilities, such as healthcare, education, and social services. This approach helps maintain the dignity of work and creates meaningful employment opportunities, especially in industries where human empathy, ethics, and decision-making are vital.
References
John Havens, Heartificial Intelligence – Embracing Our Humanity to Maximise Machines (New York: Penguin Books, 2016), p. 72.
Klaus Schwab, The Fourth Industrial Revolution: What It Means, How to Respond, World Economic Forum, 14 January 2016, retrieved on 28 April 2020 from .
Pew Research Center, October, 2017, “Automation in Everyday Life”
Pew Research Center, February 2019, “Most U.S. Teens See Anxiety and Depression as a Major Problem Among Their Peers”
World Economic Forum, Positive AI Economic Futures, Insight Report, November 2021.